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Science is correctly characterized as a process in which we keep exploring new ideas and changing our understanding of the world, to find new representations of the world that better explain what is observed. Science is driven by uncertainty, disagreement, and ignorance—the best scientists cultivate doubt. It revealed the IPCC’s unscientific practice of using different assumptions for projecting future temperature increases from those used to get models to reproduce past temperature.One need not be a climate expert to see that something is seriously amiss with the near certainties promulgated by the IPCC.While the IPCC is extremely certain that the late 20th century warming is mostly man-made, to this day it cannot collectively decide whether the earlier warming, which is of similar magnitude to the one that started in the mid-1970s, is predominantly man-made or natural.
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In subsequent testimony to the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, Curry explained: Science is often mischaracterized as the assembly and organization of data and as a collection of facts on which scientists agree. The APS workshop provides the strongest corrective to date to the politicized IPCC process.
Indeed, it becomes a fundamentally anti-scientific process when debate, disagreement, and uncertainty are suppressed.
This essay by Rupert Darwall explores the expressions of public certainty by climate scientists versus the private expressions of uncertainty, in context of a small Workshop on Climate organized by the American Physical Society (APS).
But when it came to making the centennial projections, the scaling factors were removed, probably resulting in a 25 to 30 percent over-projection of the 2100 warming, Koonin said.
Only the transcript does full justice to the exchange that followed.“It is part of the assessment process” is not a scientific justification for using assumptions that are known to be empirically wrong to produce projections that help drive the political narrative of a planet spinning toward a climate catastrophe.